Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x676e…8aa7 sports 947 markets active 1h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 604d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5,556 (-1%) realized −$5,568 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate96%879W / 38L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$639per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$3,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$64
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$7,516
sports 39% +$2,216
world 9% +$501
other 8% +$385
politics 5% −$192
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% +$34
tech 0% −$86
weather 0% −$37
finance 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.4% -5.6% 100% 33% -5.0%
≤30d 33 -2.0% -11.4% 94% 9% -8.7%
≤90d 93 +0.3% -9.3% 88% 13% -8.5%
all 917 +0.4% -9.2% 96% 8% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 8% -10.2%
10% -17.9% 4% -18.8%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.7%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$940) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$297 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$3,163
Realized−$5,568
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses879 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions30
Markets (closed)917 / 947
History coverage604d ⚠
Avg bet$639
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 917 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $599 $599 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $397 $399 +$2 (+1%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $190 $198 +$8 (+4%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $197 $197 +$1 (+0%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $148 $148 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $88 $100 +$12 (+13%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $87 $90 +$4 (+4%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 80¢ 94¢ $64 $75 +$11 (+17%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 82¢ 97¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+17%)
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? No 63¢ 90¢ $38 $54 +$16 (+44%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 51¢ 99¢ $26 $50 +$24 (+94%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? No 80¢ 65¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 21 $45 +$5 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $4,456 +$44 +1%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,319 +$21 +2%
Will Julian Champagnie score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fi Jun 14 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Carter Bryant score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals Jun 14 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Mitchell Robinson score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fi Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Harrison Barnes score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fina Jun 14 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Keldon Johnson score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Final Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will Miles McBride score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Landry Shamet score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals Jun 14 $79 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 11 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $151 +$68 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $28 +$2 +6%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 05 $46 +$4 +8%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $95 +$5 +5%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by May 31? Jun 01 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 30 $99 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 29? May 30 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on May 29? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on May 29? May 30 $46 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on May 29? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on May 29? May 30 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 29? May 30 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 29? May 30 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29? May 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 28 $476 +$24 +5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $982 +$18 +2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Dylan Harper be named to the 2026 NBA All-Rookie First Team? May 22 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $588 +$12 +2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $9,315 +$301 +3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 03 $999 +$1 +0%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Hawks Total Games O/U 5.5 May 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in April? May 01 $91 +$9 +10%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? May 01 $116 +$33 +29%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Atlanta Hawks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NB May 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $300 in April? May 01 $195 +$5 +3%
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? May 01 $91 +$6 +6%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? May 01 $27 +$19 +71%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 24 $200 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Apr 21 $286 +$14 +5%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $901 +$43 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $17 54m
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $21 54m
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $10 56m
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 6h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 7h
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 7h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $148 7h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $20 7h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 9h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 9h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 9h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY No 100¢ $15 10h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 94¢ $47 10h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 100¢ $100 11h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 11h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 11h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $29 11h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 98¢ $197 11h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $48 11h
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 98¢ $49 5d
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 90¢ $9 5d
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 90¢ $1 5d
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 90¢ $9 5d
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 90¢ $9 5d
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 90¢ $9 5d
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 90¢ $8 5d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 100¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,163.16 · official $3,163.16 (match) · 3500 history records