Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6764…49c4 other 21 markets active 6d ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17,725 (+8%) realized +$10,570 · open +$7,155
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10,851per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$66,628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5,761
14 days−$4,239
30 days+$1,343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% +$10,177
other 46% +$3,662
crypto 1% +$425
world 0% +$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +28.8% +16.6% 100% 100% +16.6%
≤30d 6 -20.6% -28.2% 50% 50% -6.5%
≤90d 12 -9.7% -18.3% 67% 58% -3.7%
all 12 -9.7% -18.3% 67% 58% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 58% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 42% -12.9%
15% -33.3% 17% -21.3%
20% -39.8% 0% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,997 vs −$6,175 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$66,628
Realized+$10,570
Unrealized+$7,155
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)12 / 21
History coverage72d
Avg bet$10,851
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 81¢ $29,573 $36,431 +$6,858 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $6,000 $6,745 +$745 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $3,400 $5,573 +$2,173 (+64%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $7,000 $5,557 −$1,443 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4,000 $3,550 −$450 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,600 $2,948 +$348 (+13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,700 $2,125 +$425 (+25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,200 $2,030 −$1,170 (-37%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,000 $1,669 −$331 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $19,971 +$5,761 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10,051 −$10,000 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9,959 +$4,326 +43%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $52,593 +$13,410 +26%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $41,657 −$8,998 -22%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6,110 −$3,156 -52%
Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elec May 08 $51 +$14 +27%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 07 $5,014 +$732 +15%
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele May 04 $2,576 −$2,547 -99%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 03 $1,122 +$82 +7%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Apr 20 $1,000 +$164 +16%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $17,950 +$7,485 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $19,971 5d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $29,874 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $10,051 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,749 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14,285 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $9,959 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 86¢ $66,003 17d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 67¢ $19,972 18d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 67¢ $32,622 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 32¢ $27,672 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 30¢ $4,988 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 33¢ $6,109 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 41¢ $12,803 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 38¢ $22,745 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2,775 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $6,110 26d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 99¢ $5,747 49d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 20¢ $61 52d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 20¢ $16 52d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 20¢ $18 52d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 20¢ $36 52d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 20¢ $6 52d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 20¢ $1 52d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 20¢ $12 52d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 20¢ $1 52d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 20¢ $1 53d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 20¢ $2 53d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 20¢ $1 53d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 20¢ $1 53d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 20¢ $1 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66,628.23 · official $66,636.55 (match) · 215 history records