Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6764…1482 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21 (+16%) realized +$20 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$28
14 days+$29
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$29
other 8% +$5
sports 7% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +23.3% +11.5% 50% 43% +58.5%
≤30d 46 -24.3% -31.5% 33% 30% +0.2%
≤90d 46 -24.3% -31.5% 33% 30% +0.2%
all 46 -24.3% -31.5% 33% 30% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 30% +0.2%
10% -38.0% 28% -9.4%
15% -44.0% 26% -18.2%
20% -49.5% 17% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 61¢ 80¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$27 +642%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 01 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 11h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 63¢ $1 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $1 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.28 · official $5.28 (match) · 92 history records