Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:12:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x675c…4341 sports 494 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$229 · open +$209
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%232W / 260L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$533est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$879now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,824
7 days−$961
14 days+$192
30 days+$1,002
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$540
other 21% −$647
crypto 6% −$182
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -11.5% -20.0% 43% 41% -15.0%
≤30d 179 +0.3% -9.3% 49% 47% -6.1%
≤90d 480 -4.3% -13.4% 46% 46% -10.6%
all 492 -3.1% -12.4% 47% 47% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 47% -10.6%
10% -20.8% 46% -19.1%
15% -28.4% 45% -26.9%
20% -35.4% 43% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$81 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$879
Realized−$229
Unrealized+$209
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses232 / 260
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$533
Open positions1
Markets (closed)492 / 494
History coverage225d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 492 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 51¢ 67¢ $670 $879 +$209 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 195 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$24 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$81 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$31 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $238 −$235 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$105 +200%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $233 −$230 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $304 +$257 +85%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $193 +$84 +43%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $248 −$245 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $305 +$421 +138%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,025 −$195 -19%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $97 −$95 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $212 −$18 -8%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $142 −$140 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $303 +$151 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $334 −$330 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $147 +$146 +99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $193 −$190 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$38 -37%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $147 −$145 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $659 +$591 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $372 +$622 +167%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $300 +$386 +129%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $203 +$189 +93%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $101 +$95 +93%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $346 −$340 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$46 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$83 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $24 −$11 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$22 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 51¢ $375 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 2h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 51¢ $304 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $238 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $58 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 12h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 58¢ $233 13h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $562 13h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 79¢ $276 16h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 54¢ $193 16h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $304 16h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $248 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL K27 100¢ $726 16h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 38¢ $102 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $878.56 · official $878.56 (match) · 828 history records