Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:37:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x675b…b49f
sports · 77 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$13 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses46 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)63 / 77
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 14 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Over 66¢ 92¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+38%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Over 72¢ 63¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Over 75¢ 60¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5 Under 69¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Over 66¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Over 60¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 Under 75¢ 44¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Over 53¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Under 62¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Over 58¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Under 55¢ 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Under 52¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 Under 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 Over 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 Over 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Over 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Over 98¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Over 98¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Over 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Over 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sakatsume vs. Dudeney: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +66%
Sakatsume vs. Dudeney: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Himeno Sakatsume vs. Alicia Dudeney: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Sakatsume vs. Dudeney: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +67%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +29%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +63%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +72%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $4 +$3 +62%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +70%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $0 +$1 +158%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $0 +$1 +303%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $0 +$1 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% +$8
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 29m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 32m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 38m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 38m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 1h
Sakatsume vs. Dudeney: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 4h
Himeno Sakatsume vs. Alicia Dudeney: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 63¢ $1 7h
Sakatsume vs. Dudeney: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 65¢ $1 7h
Himeno Sakatsume vs. Alicia Dudeney: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 63¢ $1 7h
Sakatsume vs. Dudeney: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 65¢ $1 7h
Sakatsume vs. Dudeney: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 14h
Sakatsume vs. Dudeney: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 60¢ $4 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 15h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 15h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 15h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 15h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 15h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 16h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 16h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +11.8% +1.1% 79% 45% +4.9%
≤30d 63 +10.7% +0.1% 73% 41% +3.9%
≤90d 63 +10.7% +0.1% 73% 41% +3.9%
all 63 +10.7% +0.1% 73% 41% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 41% +3.9%
10% -9.5% 37% -6.0%
15% -18.2% 25% -15.1%
20% -26.2% 24% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.92 · official $13.92 (match) · 162 history records