Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x675b…717b crypto 549 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$193 (+2%) realized +$206 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate66%361W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$81
14 days−$481
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$140
weather 6% −$49
world 2% +$25
politics 1% +$67
sports 1% +$11
other 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -6.9% -15.7% 62% 41% -20.3%
≤30d 545 -0.7% -10.1% 66% 51% -9.9%
≤90d 548 -0.7% -10.2% 66% 51% -10.0%
all 548 -0.7% -10.2% 66% 51% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 51% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 36% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 23% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 14% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$206
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses361 / 187
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)548 / 549
History coverage50d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 548 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? No 91¢ 84¢ $150 $137 −$13 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$44 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $69 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $48 +$15 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $131 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $72 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$13 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $6 41m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $106 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $100 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 88¢ $50 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $100 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 85¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? SELL No 87¢ $10 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 95¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 86¢ $15 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.23 · official $137.23 (match) · 2172 history records