Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x675a…6293 crypto 359 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$255 (+1%) realized +$254 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate56%231W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day123.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,012
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 +9.9% -0.5% 62% 4% -21.3%
≤30d 413 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 10% -18.8%
≤90d 413 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 10% -18.8%
all 413 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 10% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 10% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 10% -26.5%
15% -24.5% 9% -33.6%
20% -31.9% 8% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$40 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$254
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses231 / 182
Open positions1
Markets (closed)413 / 359
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$82
Trades / day123.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 91¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $169 −$169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $19 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $40 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $82 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.38 · official $44.50 · 3500 history records