Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6758…07b9 crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 414d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,650 (-17%) realized −$7,265 · open −$385
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,038per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$910
7 days−$910
14 days−$910
30 days−$910
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1,437
crypto 19% −$1,352
world 17% −$3,538
finance 6% −$58
culture 3% −$1,399
sports 1% +$22
politics 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -17.9% -25.7% 57% 29% -19.0%
≤30d 7 -17.9% -25.7% 57% 29% -19.0%
≤90d 30 -11.1% -19.6% 60% 27% -35.4%
all 40 -10.7% -19.2% 58% 30% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 30% -25.3%
10% -26.9% 28% -32.5%
15% -34.0% 22% -39.0%
20% -40.5% 18% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,431) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$314 vs −$861 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

414d coverage
Net worth$1,315
Realized−$7,265
Unrealized−$385
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage414d
Avg bet$1,038
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 51¢ 40¢ $1,000 $778 −$222 (-22%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $500 $330 −$170 (-34%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$94 -91%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$96 -94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,954 +$307 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,946 +$1,011 +52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $425 +$327 +77%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $401 +$25 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,792 −$2,389 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 29 $260 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 29 $32 +$43 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 29 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 29 $297 −$297 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 29 $5,242 −$3,018 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 29 $1,360 −$1,360 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 29 $846 +$322 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 29 $201 +$91 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 29 $292 +$746 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 29 $224 +$73 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 29 $201 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 29 $182 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 29 $743 −$743 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 28 $690 +$53 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 28 $652 +$38 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 28 $620 +$32 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 28 $613 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 28 $595 +$18 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 28 $552 +$43 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 28 $20 $0 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $1,104 −$552 -50%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 21 $2,818 −$1,714 -61%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Feb 02 $6,537 +$1,841 +28%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Jan 29 $191 −$100 -52%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 29 $2,644 −$2,335 -88%
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic Jan 28 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 25 $2,098 +$1,250 +60%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Jan 23 $1,436 +$835 +58%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 20 $1,405 +$31 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $1,431 −$1,399 -98%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? Oct 10 $49 −$46 -93%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $102 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 40m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 40m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $3,261 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $2,954 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,957 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,920 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $103 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $103 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $103 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,020 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $104 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $104 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $111 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL Yes 17¢ $372 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 94¢ $753 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $207 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $207 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $425 21h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $426 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $401 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $402 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2,363 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $424 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $260 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,314.78 · official $1,314.78 (match) · 154 history records