Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
67 0x6755…8972 sports 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%42W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days+$684
14 days+$113
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$410
sports 28% +$339
economics 1% +$6
crypto 0% +$16
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +146.7% +123.2% 75% 75% +41.0%
≤30d 13 +48.0% +33.9% 69% 69% -5.2%
≤90d 17 +39.3% +26.1% 71% 71% -4.8%
all 80 +1.6% -8.1% 52% 51% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 51% -10.5%
10% -16.9% 46% -19.0%
15% -24.9% 44% -26.9%
20% -32.3% 36% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$43 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses42 / 38
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage587d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 80¢ 80¢ $268 $270 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $714 +$132 +18%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $112 +$725 +650%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $210 −$208 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $191 +$35 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $130 −$128 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $231 +$87 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $529 −$523 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $343 +$88 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $140 −$137 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $10 +$9 +83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $76 +$32 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 10 $12 +$7 +60%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 01 $9 +$8 +90%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-03? May 09 $12 +$8 +73%
Timberwolves vs. Magic May 03 $16 +$4 +27%
Bruins vs. Panthers Apr 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Apr 02 $37 +$17 +45%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 26 $25 +$16 +61%
Canadiens vs. Penguins Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Reds vs. Phillies Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Dodgers vs. Pirates Mar 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Storm vs Aces Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Mavericks vs. Magic Mar 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Twins vs. Yankees Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Hornets vs. Nets Mar 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bears vs. Eagles Mar 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 18 $24 −$24 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Mar 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bruins vs. Kings Mar 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Capitals vs. Rangers Mar 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Appalachian State vs. Georgia State Mar 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Colorado vs. West Virginia Mar 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Mar 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Mar 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Heat vs. Knicks Mar 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28? Mar 03 $60 +$43 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 18 $43 +$28 +67%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-03? Feb 12 $47 +$21 +45%
Utah vs. Lightning Feb 03 $53 +$32 +61%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jan 26 $31 +$20 +64%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $95 −$47 -50%
Wild vs. Capitals Oct 28 $15 +$12 +85%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? Oct 11 $11 +$13 +127%
Astros vs. Angels Oct 01 $13 +$16 +117%
Lions vs. Ravens Sep 27 $13 +$25 +203%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 22 $15 +$21 +133%
Will Romania win on 2025-09-09? Sep 15 $12 +$15 +133%
Auburn vs. Baylor Sep 02 $9 +$8 +85%
Patriots vs. Giants Aug 29 $16 +$8 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 80¢ $270 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $714 26h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $112 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $210 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $191 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $130 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $231 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $529 11d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $343 12d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $140 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $76 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $10 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Matteo Berrettini 62¢ $12 25d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 52¢ $9 48d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 54d
Timberwolves vs. Magic BUY Magic 78¢ $16 78d
Bruins vs. Panthers BUY Bruins 61¢ $12 85d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 69¢ $37 92d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 100d
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 54¢ $24 107d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? BUY Yes 66¢ $77 114d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 117d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 128d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? BUY No 60¢ $43 134d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-03? BUY No 69¢ $47 142d
Utah vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 62¢ $53 151d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 61¢ $31 159d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $47 161d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $95 162d
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers BUY Warriors 65¢ $55 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.68 · official $269.68 (match) · 156 history records