Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
67 0x6754…459f other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$143 (+7%) realized +$365 · open −$222
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$20
sports 34% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.5% -7.3% 80% 53% -2.7%
≤30d 15 +2.5% -7.3% 80% 53% -2.7%
≤90d 15 +2.5% -7.3% 80% 53% -2.7%
all 15 +2.5% -7.3% 80% 53% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 53% -2.7%
10% -16.1% 40% -12.0%
15% -24.2% 20% -20.5%
20% -31.7% 7% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$41 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$365
Unrealized−$222
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $299 +$29 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $155 −$106 -68%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $264 +$5 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $161 +$38 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $218 +$2 +1%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$15 +14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 +$8 +30%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $140 +$14 +10%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 +$32 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $188 +$76 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$7 -86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 43¢ $98 26m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $71 31m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $49 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $49 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $49 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $201 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $36 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 83¢ $90 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $174 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $30 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $30 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $218 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 87¢ $100 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 56¢ $33 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 43h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 72¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.36 · official $98.36 (match) · 53 history records