Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x674e…075e
crypto · 125 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses104 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day105.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 124 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$1
other 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 +3.7% -6.2% 84% 48% -9.3%
≤30d 124 +3.7% -6.2% 84% 48% -9.3%
≤90d 124 +3.7% -6.2% 84% 48% -9.3%
all 124 +3.7% -6.2% 84% 48% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover105.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 48% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 31% -17.9%
15% -23.4% 22% -25.9%
20% -30.9% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.96 · official $2.96 (match) · 323 history records