Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
67 0x674d…5b2d other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%18W / 31L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$1
other 37% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 5% $0
politics 4% +$1
finance 4% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.8% -7.0% 43% 14% -9.2%
≤30d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 35% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 35% 6% -9.6%
all 49 +1.0% -8.7% 37% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 4% -9.3%
10% -17.4% 4% -18.0%
15% -25.4% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.7% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses18 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage475d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $31 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 21 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $1 $0 -12%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 19 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 18 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $17 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 31 $17 $0 +1%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Mar 21 $16 $0 +0%
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? Mar 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $2 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $20 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $29 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $32 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $11 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $11 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.89 · official $32.22 (match) · 130 history records