Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6749…5f71 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-6%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -36.8% -42.8% 22% 22% -44.5%
≤30d 18 -36.8% -42.8% 22% 22% -44.5%
≤90d 18 -36.8% -42.8% 22% 22% -44.5%
all 18 -36.8% -42.8% 22% 22% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.8% 22% -44.5%
10% ← realistic here -48.3% 22% -49.8%
15% -53.3% 22% -54.7%
20% -57.9% 22% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$2 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$6 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $16 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $12 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records