Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6743…471d other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-27%) realized −$39 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$5
crypto 29% −$21
world 7% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-81.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -79.8% -81.7% 12% 12% -73.2%
≤30d 8 -79.8% -81.7% 12% 12% -73.2%
≤90d 8 -79.8% -81.7% 12% 12% -73.2%
all 8 -79.8% -81.7% 12% 12% -73.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.7% 12% -73.2%
10% -83.5% 12% -75.8%
15% -85.1% 12% -78.1%
20% -86.5% 12% -80.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 64¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$6 +62%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $19 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY No 54¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.40 · official $74.40 (match) · 24 history records