Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x6740…bd1b other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+2%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$1
sports 22% +$4
crypto 15% −$2
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +0.8% -8.8% 52% 52% -7.6%
≤30d 21 +0.8% -8.8% 52% 52% -7.6%
≤90d 21 +0.8% -8.8% 52% 52% -7.6%
all 21 +0.8% -8.8% 52% 52% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 52% -7.6%
10% -17.5% 43% -16.4%
15% -25.5% 29% -24.5%
20% -32.8% 14% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)21 / 33
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Yes 74¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +226%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +179%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 24h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 25h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 26h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $3 46h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.15 · official $13.44 (match) · 60 history records