Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x673f…40af other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate51%25W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$1
world 20% −$2
politics 18% +$2
crypto 11% −$3
sports 10% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 1 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
all 49 -2.9% -12.2% 51% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 2% -10.2%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses25 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage465d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Dec 26 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $7 $0 -6%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 01 $7 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Fetterman out in May? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 25 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on May 23? May 21 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 20 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 20 $6 $0 +5%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 17 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 15 $12 −$4 -33%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 11 $10 $0 +5%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? May 06 $2 $0 -2%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross less than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $15 $0 +0%
Israel wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 10 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $45 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $37 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $46 27d
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? SELL No 98¢ $4 173d
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 363d
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? SELL No 92¢ $6 377d
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? BUY No 98¢ $7 378d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? SELL No 95¢ $7 378d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 94¢ $7 380d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi SELL No 98¢ $7 380d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi BUY No 98¢ $7 380d
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? SELL Yes 98¢ $7 381d
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 381d
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? SELL No 96¢ $7 381d
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? BUY No 96¢ $7 381d
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? SELL No 95¢ $7 381d
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? BUY No 96¢ $7 382d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? SELL No 97¢ $7 382d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY No 97¢ $7 383d
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe SELL No 98¢ $7 383d
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe BUY No 98¢ $7 386d
Fetterman out in May? SELL No 99¢ $7 386d
Fetterman out in May? BUY No 98¢ $7 387d
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele SELL No 90¢ $7 387d
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele BUY No 90¢ $7 388d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 388d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 392d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on May 23? SELL No 98¢ $7 392d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on May 23? BUY No 96¢ $7 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.62 · official $44.62 (match) · 144 history records