Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x673c…3d41 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-35%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$6
crypto 12% −$2
world 8% −$1
other 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +44.3%
≤30d 1 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +44.3%
≤90d 8 -62.2% -65.8% 25% 25% -74.9%
all 20 -21.6% -29.1% 45% 45% -38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 45% -38.1%
10% -35.9% 40% -44.1%
15% -42.0% 35% -49.5%
20% -47.7% 20% -54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 85¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Jirí Procházka 50¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026? No 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card) Moreno 68¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: King Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber (Lightweight, Main Card) Zellhuber 79¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 65¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, Main Card) Youssef Zalal 56¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) Joel Álvarez 40¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 24 $1 −$1 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Apr 22 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 11 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Mar 21 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 14 $2 +$1 +36%
UFC Fight Night: King Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber (Lightweight, Main Ca Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $1 $0 +30%
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 30 $1 +$1 +117%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 26 $1 $0 +13%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on January 26? Jan 25 $1 $0 -1%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $1 +$1 +125%
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $1 $0 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 61¢ $1 11d
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Joel Álvarez 40¢ $1 42d
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M BUY Youssef Zalal 56¢ $1 51d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $4 53d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 50¢ $1 64d
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main SELL Movsar Evloev 99¢ $1 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 86d
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main BUY Movsar Evloev 69¢ $1 91d
UFC Fight Night: Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa (Bantamweight, Prelims) SELL Hecher Sosa 94¢ $3 92d
UFC Fight Night: Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Hecher Sosa 69¢ $2 94d
UFC Fight Night: King Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Zellhuber 76¢ $1 106d
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main BUY Moreno 68¢ $1 111d
UFC Fight Night: King Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Zellhuber 82¢ $1 111d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 65¢ $1 111d
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) SELL Volkanovski 78¢ $1 133d
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) SELL Ruffy 100¢ $2 133d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 135d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $1 139d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1 139d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on January 26? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 140d
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Ruffy 50¢ $1 140d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on January 26? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 140d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) SELL Gaethje 72¢ $2 140d
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) SELL Silva 100¢ $1 140d
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Volkanovski 60¢ $1 141d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 141d
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Silva 68¢ $1 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 34 history records