Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:48:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

67 0x672b…4439 other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$100 (+16%) realized +$153 · open −$53

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR46%break-even

Win rate46%12W / 14L

Drawdown81%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day15.6pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit24%portable

Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +46%

net ROI/market (all)+8.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	+20.3%	+8.9%	46%	46%	-0.2%
≤30d	26	+20.3%	+8.9%	46%	46%	-0.2%
≤90d	26	+20.3%	+8.9%	46%	46%	-0.2%
all	26	+20.3%	+8.9%	46%	46%	-0.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.9%	46%	-0.2%
10%	-1.5%	46%	-9.8%
15%	-11.1%	38%	-18.5%
20%	-19.8%	35%	-26.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -16% → late +57% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$16 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.25 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$41

Realized+$153

Unrealized−$53

Win rate (resolved)46%

Wins / losses12 / 14

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions8

Markets (closed)26 / 34

History coverage4d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day15.6

Drawdown81%

Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-14%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$15	$0	−$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$17	$0	−$17 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$18	$0	−$18 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	Jun 20	$71	−$56	-78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$30	+$19	+62%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$16	+$89	+543%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$7	−$6	-83%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$29	−$27	-93%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$20	+$6	+28%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	Jun 20	$10	−$5	-52%
Brazil leading at halftime?	Jun 20	$68	+$24	+36%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 20	$10	+$31	+307%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 19	$6	−$4	-73%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco?	Jun 19	$10	−$9	-91%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$24	+$26	+109%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 18	$14	+$17	+120%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$6	−$6	-97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-94%
Portugal to win the second half?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-99%
Portugal leading at halftime?	Jun 17	$30	+$16	+53%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$21	+206%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$71	+$22	+31%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-59%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$1	+$1	+76%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$1	+$2	+181%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$20	−$20	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	SELL Netherlands	17¢	$15	3m
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY Netherlands	76¢	$69	31m
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY Netherlands	41¢	$2	33m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	17¢	$18	53m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?	BUY Yes	14¢	$15	53m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	16¢	$17	53m
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	4¢	$4	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	94¢	$49	1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$30	1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	SELL Yes	99¢	$106	13h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	13h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	13h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	7¢	$7	14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	15¢	$16	14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	27¢	$29	14h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	SELL Yes	99¢	$26	16h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	SELL Brazil	10¢	$5	16h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	BUY Brazil	18¢	$5	16h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	BUY Brazil	22¢	$5	16h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	77¢	$20	16h
Brazil leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$91	17h
Brazil leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	73¢	$68	18h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco?	SELL Yes	100¢	$42	18h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco?	SELL Yes	4¢	$2	18h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.07 · official $41.07 (match) · 63 history records