Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
67 0x6725…1bf9 sports 372 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,504 (+37%) realized +$7,680 · open −$176
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%152W / 212L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$839now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days+$131
14 days−$461
30 days+$4,830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$6,222
politics 19% −$844
sports 18% −$139
other 15% +$983
tech 5% +$297
crypto 3% +$674
economics 0% +$249
culture 0% −$42
finance 0% −$1
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +6.8% -3.4% 47% 44% -6.9%
≤30d 167 +6.0% -4.1% 36% 34% +20.6%
≤90d 364 +19.3% +7.9% 42% 38% +26.9%
all 364 +19.3% +7.9% 42% 38% +26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 38% +26.9%
10% -2.4% 36% +14.8%
15% -11.8% 34% +3.7%
20% -20.5% 31% -6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$24 · ×3.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$839
Realized+$7,680
Unrealized−$176
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses152 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions8
Markets (closed)364 / 372
History coverage85d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 55¢ 92¢ $200 $331 +$131 (+66%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $300 $267 −$33 (-11%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 25¢ 39¢ $60 $94 +$34 (+56%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 35¢ 24¢ $130 $87 −$43 (-33%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $88 $27 −$61 (-69%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 22¢ 3¢ $130 $19 −$111 (-85%)
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+20%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $100 $6 −$94 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $701 +$30 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $200 −$6 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $50 −$38 -76%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $150 −$93 -62%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $72 −$72 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$52 +103%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $116 +$87 +75%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $280 −$64 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $250 −$225 -90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $50 +$196 +392%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $95 −$60 -63%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 14 $100 +$85 +85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $50 −$7 -14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 14 $93 −$93 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $35 +$50 +144%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 +$14 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $130 +$33 +26%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $104 −$92 -89%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 12 $579 −$27 -5%
Ben Pasternak jailed? Jun 12 $0 $0 +191%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $100 +$45 +45%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $180 +$201 +112%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $489 +$227 +46%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $100 +$57 +58%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $300 +$36 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $17 +$16 +92%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $139 −$135 -97%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 09 $38 −$7 -19%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $567 +$423 +75%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $300 2m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $60 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $66 51m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $200 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $573 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 47¢ $100 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $194 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 67¢ $100 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 44¢ $58 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $23 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $200 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 30h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY No 6¢ $2 33h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY No 7¢ $10 33h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY No 3¢ $4 34h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY No 8¢ $41 36h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY No 8¢ $1 36h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY No 8¢ $9 36h
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri BUY No 7¢ $4 36h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $51 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $838.84 · official $826.84 · 1287 history records