Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:10:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6721…d75b crypto 338 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$274 (-2%) realized −$269 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%144W / 177L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$580now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days+$24
14 days+$126
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$85
crypto 21% −$356
other 19% +$33
sports 13% −$2
politics 4% −$133
finance 3% +$123
tech 1% +$3
economics 0% −$3
culture 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.6% -12.8% 40% 40% -6.8%
≤30d 24 -5.0% -14.1% 42% 38% -23.2%
≤90d 114 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 40% -11.1%
all 321 -8.6% -17.3% 45% 37% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 37% -10.9%
10% -25.2% 30% -19.4%
15% -32.4% 26% -27.2%
20% -39.0% 21% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$580
Realized−$269
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses144 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions9
Markets (closed)321 / 338
History coverage157d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance France 90¢ 88¢ $360 $355 −$5 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $62 $80 +$19 (+30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ $17 $39 +$22 (+133%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $51 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 44¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-41%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $23 $20 −$2 (-9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $12 −$4 (-25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $5 +$2 (+44%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $5 +$2 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $101 −$78 -77%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $24 −$10 -40%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $21 −$9 -44%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $11 −$4 -34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $89 −$15 -17%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN Jun 27 $19 −$3 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 27 $404 +$99 +25%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$21 +103%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND W Jun 23 $25 +$12 +47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $54 +$48 +88%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17 Jun 18 $20 +$33 +162%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$20 +79%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 16 $188 −$8 -4%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $121 −$120 -99%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $523 +$32 +6%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $40 −$40 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $852 −$391 -46%
Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $186 +$29 +16%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $153 −$59 -39%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $157 +$135 +86%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $126 −$51 -41%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5 May 29 $10 +$6 +62%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $10 +$7 +65%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $53 −$21 -39%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $52 +$4 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $914 +$231 +25%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $12 +$8 +62%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 26 $21 −$21 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $64 +$36 +56%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 25 $75 −$54 -73%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 25 $12 +$8 +65%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 24 $15 −$15 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $183 −$29 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $7 −$1 -16%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? May 24 $928 −$26 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $43 −$9 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $551 −$64 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $254 +$42 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $622 +$13 +2%
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? May 19 $4 +$6 +158%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 19 $50 −$6 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance BUY France 89¢ $60 1h
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance BUY France 90¢ $301 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 14¢ $23 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 32h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 33h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 33h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 43¢ $74 46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN SELL 23¢ $16 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $89 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $389 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 25¢ $19 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 49¢ $20 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND W BUY 68¢ $25 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 46¢ $51 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 61¢ $20 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 62¢ $10 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $25 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 19¢ $10 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 53¢ $15 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 BUY 48¢ $10 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 41¢ $19 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 52¢ $39 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17 BUY 37¢ $20 12d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $30 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $25 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $25 13d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 SELL Yes 80¢ $128 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $579.50 · official $582.20 (match) · 1539 history records