Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x671e…6c07 world 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%28W / 58L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days+$34
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$38
other 22% +$2
politics 17% +$1
sports 15% −$1
economics 6% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.6% -8.9% 60% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 31 +4.9% -5.1% 48% 6% -8.3%
≤90d 77 +27.0% +14.9% 31% 5% -9.0%
all 86 +24.2% +12.4% 33% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 5% -9.1%
10% +1.6% 5% -17.8%
15% -8.2% 2% -25.7%
20% -17.2% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.84 per $1 lost it wins $2.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses28 / 58
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage356d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $189 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $142 +$4 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $149 +$2 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $117 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $131 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $14 +$5 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $315 −$7 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $28 +$35 +124%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $86 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $78 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $113 −$6 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $33 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $78 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $109 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $195 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $114 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $88 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $72 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $79 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $117 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $98 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $87 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $85 +$2 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $179 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $4 −$1 -19%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $107 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $3 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $95 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $11 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $143 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $93 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $279 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $187 +$1 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $84 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $93 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $184 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $85 +$1 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $60 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $23 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $46 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $11 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $46 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $104 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $26 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $24 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $61 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $95 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $21 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $117 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $17 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $40 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $14 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $60 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $80 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $131 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $20 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 410 history records