Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x671b…9a07 other 208 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9,944 (-1%) realized −$8,837 · open −$1,107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate76%162W / 50L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,569per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$5,873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$188
7 days−$259
14 days−$38
30 days+$596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$12,982
other 26% −$6,375
world 4% +$468
economics 4% +$9,434
politics 0% +$175
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -55.3% -59.6% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 38 -21.8% -29.2% 66% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 122 -10.1% -18.7% 71% 7% -11.9%
all 212 -6.3% -15.2% 76% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 6% -10.2%
10% -23.3% 2% -18.8%
15% ← realistic here -30.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$8,226) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$611 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$5,873
Realized−$8,837
Unrealized−$1,107
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses162 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)212 / 208
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$5,569
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 70¢ 48¢ $3,456 $2,347 −$1,109 (-32%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 55¢ 56¢ $1,769 $1,781 +$12 (+1%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 73¢ 73¢ $1,623 $1,625 +$2 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $132 $121 −$11 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9,043 +$203 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4,368 +$8 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $7,711 −$208 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,109 −$366 -33%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9,404 +$113 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3,986 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $137 +$3 +2%
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? Jun 09 $582 +$12 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$1 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $42 −$4 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $7,451 +$161 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $754 +$32 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,360 +$17 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1,493 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2,082 +$15 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $22,263 +$533 +2%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 May 30 $26 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $681 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $2,126 +$25 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $1,607 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $2,189 +$8 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,335 +$10 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $992 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 24 $1,875 +$25 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? May 21 $241 −$3 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $347 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $133 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 17 $919 +$15 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $899 +$10 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $1,992 +$6 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $2,792 −$468 -17%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $148 +$52 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $580 +$101 +17%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $186 +$14 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $157 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 73¢ $329 1h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 56¢ $134 1h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 57¢ $572 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,246 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,472 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $982 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $517 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $263 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $141 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $37 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $19 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $3,418 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $473 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $136 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $22 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $114 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $298 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $46 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $38 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $152 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $280 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $488 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,873.03 · official $5,873.03 (match) · 3500 history records