Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
67 0x671a…237d other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$40 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$3
politics 16% −$5
sports 6% +$41
economics 5% −$2
culture 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 +6.1% -4.0% 15% 10% -9.4%
all 104 +6.0% -4.1% 14% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 10% -9.4%
10% -13.3% 10% -18.1%
15% -21.6% 9% -26.0%
20% -29.3% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×9.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)104 / 108
History coverage96d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $182 $182 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 48¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $321 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 03 $105 $0 +0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $632 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 19 $290 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $683 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $278 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $279 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $290 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $281 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $300 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $284 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $278 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $310 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 03 $289 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $304 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $296 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $597 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 24 $310 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 20 $300 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $553 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $289 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $285 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $314 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $304 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $488 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $285 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $313 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $295 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $81 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $8 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 6d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $182 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 10d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 16d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 16d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 17d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $67 20d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 20d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 21d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 21d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 22d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $43 22d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $55 28d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $55 29d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 29d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.07 · official $319.07 (match) · 309 history records