Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x671a…2f1e other 955 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$24,333 (+24%) realized +$26,456 · open −$2,123
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate56%361W / 283L
Whale WR21%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day74.1pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$28,464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$5,438
politics 23% −$4,742
sports 22% −$1,880
world 5% −$1,198
tech 5% −$1,283
culture 3% −$162
economics 3% −$984
weather 0% −$123
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +147.1% +123.6% 91% 24% -4.7%
≤30d 636 +25.4% +13.5% 56% 22% -29.8%
≤90d 644 +24.5% +12.6% 56% 23% -30.3%
all 644 +24.5% +12.6% 56% 23% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.6% 23% -30.3%
10% ← realistic here +1.8% 16% -37.0%
15% -8.0% 12% -43.1%
20% -17.0% 10% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 21% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$72 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$28,464
Realized+$26,456
Unrealized−$2,123
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses361 / 283
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions337
Markets (closed)644 / 955
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$104
Trades / day74.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 337 History 644 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $891 $899 +$8 (+1%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 94¢ 100¢ $846 $896 +$50 (+6%)
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 96¢ 96¢ $828 $828 −$1 (-0%)
Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 99¢ $821 $818 −$2 (-0%)
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 99¢ $785 $784 −$1 (-0%)
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 99¢ $783 $784 +$0 (+0%)
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 99¢ $787 $783 −$3 (-0%)
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 98¢ $782 $781 −$1 (-0%)
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 98¢ $785 $778 −$8 (-1%)
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 98¢ $784 $777 −$8 (-1%)
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 98¢ $768 $776 +$8 (+1%)
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 97¢ $786 $767 −$19 (-2%)
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 99¢ $757 $754 −$3 (-0%)
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 99¢ $758 $753 −$5 (-1%)
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 100¢ 99¢ $760 $753 −$7 (-1%)
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 98¢ $758 $748 −$10 (-1%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $700 $708 +$8 (+1%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 88¢ 97¢ $634 $701 +$67 (+11%)
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 93¢ 88¢ $737 $697 −$39 (-5%)
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 59¢ 80¢ $509 $695 +$186 (+37%)
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 94¢ 87¢ $717 $664 −$53 (-7%)
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 79¢ 80¢ $626 $630 +$4 (+1%)
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 98¢ $529 $530 +$1 (+0%)
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 97¢ $137 $138 +$1 (+1%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 95¢ 99¢ $128 $133 +$5 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 18 $2 +$53 +2300%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 18 $25 +$37 +146%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 18 $39 $0 -1%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 18 $40 −$3 -6%
Will Cale Makar win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 18 $24 +$2 +10%
Will Rasmus Dahlin win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 18 $17 −$2 -10%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 18 $1 +$19 +2700%
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co Jun 18 $0 +$46 +11416%
Will Movistar KOI win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 18 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Karmine Corp win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 18 $13 +$10 +78%
Will Team Vitality win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 18 $13 +$8 +62%
Will Pierre Gasly achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 20 Jun 18 $17 $0 +2%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the Jun 18 $17 $0 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the Jun 18 $17 $0 +2%
Will Lance Stroll achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 20 Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2 Jun 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will Sergio Perez achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 20 Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at t Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the Jun 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will Fernando Alonso achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 20 Jun 18 $0 +$17 +9900%
Will Franco Colapinto achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at th Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 18 $2 +$9 +400%
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in May 2026? Jun 18 $7 −$2 -28%
Will "Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc" win Film of the Year at the Jun 18 $4 +$1 +27%
Will "100 Meters" win Film of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime A Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will "The Rose of Versailles" win Film of the Year at the 2026 Crunchy Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will "Scarlet" win Film of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awar Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 18 $0 +$351 +188993%
Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as th Jun 18 $4 +$1 +12%
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 2 or 3 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 18 $5 −$33 -658%
Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 18 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead under Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will "Mononoke the Movie: Chapter II — The Ashes of Rage" win Film of Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the le Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 4 or 5 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 18 $5 −$33 -661%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +261%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 18 $2 +$944 +47294%
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Canadi Jun 18 $1 +$1 +122%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +20%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $12 +$3 +22%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $233 +$10 +4%
Will Antoine Semenyo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $141 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group BUY No 49¢ $100 1h
Will Colombia be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group BUY No 52¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group BUY No 42¢ $87 1h
Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group BUY No 42¢ $9 1h
Will England finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 42¢ $0 6h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $9 6h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $19 6h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $12 6h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $0 9h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $13 29h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $5 29h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $12 29h
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $139 30h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $138 30h
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $81 30h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $90 30h
Will Sadio Mane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $141 30h
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $141 30h
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at t BUY No 100¢ $140 30h
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $140 30h
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 30h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $140 30h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $131 30h
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $141 30h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $141 30h
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $141 30h
Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $141 30h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $140 30h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $138 30h
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $140 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,464.38 · official $28,658.62 (match) · 3500 history records