Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x671a…cf16 other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized +$21 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$97
sports 18% +$1,136
world 4% −$16
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +56.9% +41.9% 25% 25% +7.2%
≤30d 28 +56.9% +41.9% 25% 25% +7.2%
≤90d 28 +56.9% +41.9% 25% 25% +7.2%
all 28 +56.9% +41.9% 25% 25% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.9% 25% +7.2%
10% ← realistic here +28.3% 21% -3.1%
15% +15.9% 21% -12.4%
20% +4.6% 21% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +111% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +111% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +89% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$243 vs −$30 · ×8.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,314
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions21
Markets (closed)28 / 64
History coverage5d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Yes 10¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+41%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Yes $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $63 −$12 (-16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Yes $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $41 +$6 (+18%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $34 +$9 (+38%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $22 −$18 (-44%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $21 +$6 (+38%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $56 −$55 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Spain vs. Cabo V Jun 16 $10 +$1,102 +10703%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$16 -16%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$2 +11%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$77 +251%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $56 +$76 +135%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $82 −$54 -66%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$143 +279%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$85 +414%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$215 +419%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes $51 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes $103 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $123 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $15 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a BUY $26 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will Jordan win on 2026- BUY $15 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $51 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,313.84 · official $1,354.07 · 139 history records