Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6717…ea2c other 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$31 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%41W / 72L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$22
other 25% −$1
politics 8% +$2
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% +$2
economics 2% $0
sports 1% +$3
culture 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 10% -9.3%
≤30d 31 +1.2% -8.5% 32% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 35 +1.0% -8.6% 31% 6% -8.8%
all 113 +0.1% -9.4% 36% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -9.0%
10% -18.1% 2% -17.7%
15% -26.0% 1% -25.6%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses41 / 72
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage445d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $102 $100 −$2 (-2%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $80 +$7 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $105 −$10 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $117 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $219 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $110 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $107 +$3 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $90 +$4 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 08 $82 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $157 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $110 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $101 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $100 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $55 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $191 −$11 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $93 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $7 −$1 -11%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $112 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $112 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $86 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $178 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $110 −$3 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $20 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $109 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $76 +$37 +48%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $12 −$2 -13%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $76 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $151 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $41 $0 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Aug 10 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 14 $19 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $4 $0 -7%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Jul 12 $1 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 12 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $16 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $86 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 46h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $55 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $80 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $94 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $68 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $66 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $117 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $68 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $106 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $91 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $9 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $55 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $51 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $78 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $71 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $110 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $107 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $86 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.32 · official $100.47 (match) · 426 history records