Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x6714…5183
world · 40 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage295d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 1 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $38 $38 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +16%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $1 $0 +21%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August? Sep 02 $36 $0 +1%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Aug 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $44 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Aug 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 26 $8 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in August? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 22 $41 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% $0
politics 17% $0
culture 14% $0
other 9% $0
sports 8% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 89¢ $38 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 89¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 89¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $43 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $43 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $42 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $42 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.7% -7.0% 33% 17% -9.1%
≤30d 8 +2.1% -7.7% 25% 12% -9.2%
≤90d 8 +2.1% -7.7% 25% 12% -9.2%
all 39 +0.9% -8.7% 18% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 5% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.92 · official $37.92 (match) · 108 history records