Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
67 0x6714…60bb crypto 669 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,312 (+2%) realized +$1,306 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate96%638W / 30L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$213
7 days+$737
14 days+$1,031
30 days+$1,154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 +3.8% -6.0% 98% 3% -4.9%
≤30d 662 +1.9% -7.8% 95% 8% -7.6%
≤90d 668 +2.0% -7.7% 96% 9% -7.6%
all 668 +2.0% -7.7% 96% 9% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 9% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 0% -16.5%
15% -24.6% 0% -24.5%
20% -32.0% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$74 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$1,306
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses638 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)668 / 669
History coverage30d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 668 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 90¢ 92¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $199 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $166 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $193 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $124 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $92 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $78 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $93 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $79 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $129 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $188 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $118 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $68 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $140 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $98 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $91 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $94 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $169 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $75 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $66 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $147 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $143 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $120 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $186 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $74 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $165 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $131 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $42 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $159 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $155 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $44 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $166 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $193 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $58 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $37 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $92 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $78 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $27 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $93 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $22 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $18 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $79 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $129 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $64 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $91 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $188 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $45 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.55 · official $192.22 · 1722 history records