Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6714…485c crypto 43 markets active 4d ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-5%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +59% what you keep after slip
Net edge+59%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$32
politics 5% −$4
sports 4% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+65.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +82.9% +65.5% 33% 33% -23.2%
≤30d 43 +82.9% +65.5% 33% 33% -23.2%
≤90d 43 +82.9% +65.5% 33% 33% -23.2%
all 43 +82.9% +65.5% 33% 33% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +65.5% 33% -23.2%
10% +49.6% 30% -30.5%
15% +35.2% 30% -37.2%
20% +21.9% 28% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +83% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +107% → late +60% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage17d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $69 −$64 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $38 +$112 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$33 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $0 +$5 +2400%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 10 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $8 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$6 +135%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$4 +112%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$19 +895%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$92 +2867%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 +$8 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $42 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $10 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records