Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6712…36b9 weather 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$306 (-2%) realized −$306 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate83%151W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$482
14 days−$463
30 days−$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% −$53
other 23% −$359
finance 12% +$23
sports 4% −$36
crypto 1% −$2
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -12.6% -20.9% 73% 16% -18.5%
≤30d 183 -2.0% -11.3% 83% 23% -11.4%
≤90d 183 -2.0% -11.3% 83% 23% -11.4%
all 183 -2.0% -11.3% 83% 23% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 23% -11.4%
10% -19.8% 8% -19.9%
15% -27.6% 3% -27.6%
20% -34.7% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$61 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$306
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses151 / 32
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage24d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 19? Jun 18 $50 $0 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$95 -94%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $77 +$10 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $102 +$43 +42%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 −$36 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$9 +9%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $200 −$96 -48%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$18 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 −$72 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $62 +$16 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$11 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $200 +$13 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 −$61 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 −$11 -11%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 82¢ $50 56m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $102 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $50 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 27h
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 6¢ $6 27h
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 97¢ $80 30h
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 96¢ $100 30h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 37h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $87 37h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $77 39h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 40h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $145 42h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $102 44h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $105 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $117 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 54¢ $65 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $109 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $105 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 391 history records