Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6712…a95b sports 204 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,029 (-20%) realized −$5,862 · open −$167
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%74W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$477est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,478
7 days−$3,780
14 days−$4,142
30 days−$4,165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$5,988
crypto 4% −$486
other 0% −$44
economics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -42.8% -48.2% 32% 31% -41.6%
≤30d 105 -30.3% -36.9% 36% 35% -31.1%
≤90d 202 -30.3% -36.9% 37% 36% -29.7%
all 202 -30.3% -36.9% 37% 36% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 36% -29.7%
10% -43.0% 35% -36.5%
15% -48.5% 33% -42.6%
20% -53.5% 28% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$123 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized−$5,862
Unrealized−$167
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses74 / 128
Est. fees paid−$477
Open positions2
Markets (closed)202 / 204
History coverage70d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 48¢ 84¢ $192 $330 +$139 (+72%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 55¢ 0¢ $306 $0 −$306 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $244 +$47 +19%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $156 +$88 +56%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $204 −$202 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $148 +$56 +38%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $86 −$84 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $233 −$228 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $186 −$184 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $113 −$112 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $456 −$117 -26%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $140 +$61 +43%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $234 −$232 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $326 −$320 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $494 −$488 -99%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $434 −$428 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $268 +$147 +55%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $275 +$341 +124%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $348 +$118 +34%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $347 +$275 +79%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $257 +$90 +35%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $254 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $270 −$264 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $182 +$342 +188%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $113 −$110 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $113 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $113 −$112 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $376 −$201 -53%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $113 +$58 +51%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $266 −$263 -99%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $97 −$96 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $59 −$57 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $112 +$85 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $112 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $140 −$137 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $299 −$295 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $348 −$14 -4%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $254 −$49 -19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $81 −$79 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $278 +$72 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $146 −$145 -99%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $121 −$120 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $88 +$33 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $70 −$69 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $371 −$366 -99%
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Jun 12 $101 −$34 -34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $152 +$109 +71%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 83¢ $327 2m
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 53¢ $298 11m
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 38¢ $92 14m
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 67¢ $389 14m
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 48¢ $289 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Jessica Pegula 75¢ $290 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 62¢ $244 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 92¢ $244 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 58¢ $156 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $310 6h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 60¢ $204 19h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $204 19h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 72¢ $148 20h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Jaime Faria 31¢ $86 20h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 35¢ $233 20h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 58¢ $186 21h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 68¢ $113 22h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 51¢ $201 23h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 100¢ $201 24h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 69¢ $140 25h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 72¢ $234 26h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 42¢ $326 28h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 49¢ $326 28h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $494 41h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 37¢ $255 41h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 31¢ $45 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $434 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $415 43h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova SELL Elise Mertens 100¢ $616 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $268 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.78 · official $330.78 (match) · 397 history records