Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x670f…901f crypto 28 markets active 6d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 28 -7.1% -16.0% 57% 50% -17.0%
≤90d 28 -7.1% -16.0% 57% 50% -17.0%
all 28 -7.1% -16.0% 57% 50% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 50% -17.0%
10% -24.0% 39% -25.0%
15% -31.3% 21% -32.2%
20% -38.1% 14% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$32 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage10d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $153 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 02 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 02 $28 +$29 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $78 +$20 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 02 $49 +$14 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 02 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 02 $105 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 02 $106 +$44 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 02 $235 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 02 $26 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 02 $26 +$41 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 02 $78 −$19 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 02 $58 +$36 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 02 $26 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 02 $56 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 02 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 01 $11 +$34 +326%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $34 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $123 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $102 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $28 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $29 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $37 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $42 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $56 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $102 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $64 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $49 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $27 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $33 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $3 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records