Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x6709…385b
other · 778 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,078 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,721 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized−$1,721
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses424 / 352
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)776 / 778
History coverage172d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 2 History 776 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$25
14 days+$33
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 63¢ 67¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 8? Down 78¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 8? Down 85¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$14 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$45 +1119%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $30 −$20 -66%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $51 +$15 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $89 +$15 +17%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $38 −$26 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $152 +$21 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $20 +$10 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $25 −$22 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $17 +$28 +162%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $44 +$30 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $51 +$22 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $18 +$17 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $25 +$1 +3%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $34 +$16 +47%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $16 −$15 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $15 +$10 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $22 +$12 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $42 +$8 +19%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $22 −$20 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $21 +$11 +55%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $30 +$12 +38%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 21 $55 +$2 +3%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $33 +$17 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $9 −$7 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $18 −$6 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $28 −$28 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $84 +$15 +18%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $26 +$11 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $14 +$15 +103%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $26 −$15 -58%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $26 −$22 -83%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 May 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2 May 14 $27 −$9 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $17 +$76 +445%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-Ma May 12 $44 +$6 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $53 −$16 -30%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 May 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $24 +$25 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% −$1,202
politics 10% −$438
tech 6% +$114
crypto 5% −$68
world 2% −$18
finance 1% +$13
culture 1% −$72
sports 1% +$24
weather 0% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 3h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 3h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 2d
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 2d
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 3d
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $40 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $66 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $43 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $31 6d
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 6d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $61 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $172 8d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $152 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +102.7% +83.4% 44% 44% -0.9%
≤30d 39 +22.0% +10.4% 56% 51% -3.1%
≤90d 411 -13.9% -22.1% 41% 31% -21.3%
all 776 -5.9% -14.8% 55% 35% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 35% -13.6%
10% -23.0% 16% -21.9%
15% -30.4% 12% -29.4%
20% -37.3% 8% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.24 · official $53.24 (match) · 3500 history records