Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6707…d4d8 sports 642 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,368 (-2%) realized −$1,386 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%351W / 289L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$910est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$101
14 days−$205
30 days−$6,746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,859
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -3.3% -12.5% 54% 52% -7.8%
≤30d 340 -20.8% -28.3% 44% 42% -27.3%
≤90d 640 -2.2% -11.5% 55% 52% -12.3%
all 640 -2.2% -11.5% 55% 52% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 52% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 49% -20.7%
15% -27.7% 43% -28.4%
20% -34.8% 32% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$65 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$1,386
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses351 / 289
Est. fees paid−$910
Open positions2
Markets (closed)640 / 642
History coverage48d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 640 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season ONSIDE GAMING 60¢ 81¢ $53 $72 +$19 (+35%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ 42¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $67 +$88 +132%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $203 +$102 +50%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $203 +$138 +68%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $475 −$125 -26%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $103 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $25 +$11 +43%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $25 +$22 +86%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $163 −$160 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $49 −$10 -20%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $51 +$26 +51%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $49 −$31 -64%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 16 $177 −$175 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $65 −$64 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $154 +$111 +72%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $49 −$48 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $74 +$30 +41%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $63 +$62 +99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 172.5 Jun 16 $32 +$31 +97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $152 +$131 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $53 −$52 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$17 +57%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $64 +$42 +66%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$31 +31%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $58 −$9 -16%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $50 +$22 +44%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $60 +$9 +15%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 +$12 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $28 +$14 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$26 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $132 +$98 +74%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$23 +46%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $151 +$55 +36%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $170 +$153 +90%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $275 −$16 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$13 +26%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5 Jun 14 $73 +$31 +42%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $91 −$17 -19%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 14 $25 +$16 +64%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $44 −$43 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $179 +$116 +64%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $251 −$50 -20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $83 +$77 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $59 4m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $156 25m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner SELL K27 78¢ $305 25m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 51¢ $203 36m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $67 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $342 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 56¢ $25 2h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 60¢ $54 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 59¢ $178 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 5¢ $14 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $336 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 88¢ $317 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $158 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 55¢ $108 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 55¢ $36 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Team Refuser 95¢ $36 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 44¢ $163 4h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 42¢ $39 5h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 89¢ $76 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 53¢ $25 6h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 66¢ $25 7h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $49 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $18 7h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Gustavo Almeida 26¢ $18 7h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 7h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 70¢ $49 7h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $48 11h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 53¢ $127 11h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $65 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.86 · official $128.86 (match) · 1448 history records