Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x6705…234a
weather · 986 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$191 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$212 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized+$212
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses208 / 601
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions28
Markets (closed)809 / 986
History coverage28d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day57.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 28 History 809 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$29
14 days+$111
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Under 76¢ 52¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 62¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 76¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 66¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Cincinnati Reds 70¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) St. Louis Cardinals 81¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) St. Louis Cardinals 72¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+120%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Houston Astros 75¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Over 78¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) New York Yankees 68¢ 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Kansas City Royals 69¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Toronto Blue Jays 71¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-61%)
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 65¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 73¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $1 +$9 +726%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$9 +1146%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +456%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$10 +268%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -58%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $7 −$3 -48%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -50%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +67%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$8 +395%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +27%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 77% +$179
sports 23% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 1h
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) BUY Houston Astros 75¢ $1 1h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 71¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 222 +3.7% -6.2% 54% 53% -2.1%
≤30d 809 +10.0% -0.5% 26% 25% +7.5%
≤90d 809 +10.0% -0.5% 26% 25% +7.5%
all 809 +10.0% -0.5% 26% 25% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 25% +7.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 23% -2.8%
15% -18.7% 15% -12.2%
20% -26.7% 13% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.76 · official $16.24 (match) · 1702 history records