Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6703…37b8 world 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate21%12W / 44L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$9
politics 28% +$1
other 15% $0
culture 5% +$1
finance 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 11% 11% -7.1%
≤30d 20 +0.4% -9.1% 20% 5% -8.4%
≤90d 20 +0.4% -9.1% 20% 5% -8.4%
all 56 +0.1% -9.4% 21% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -8.8%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.5%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage328d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $83 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $108 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $71 +$11 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $108 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Aug 08 $12 $0 -4%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 02 $8 $0 -2%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8? Aug 02 $9 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 02 $9 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $2 $0 -3%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $14 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $5 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $8 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $49 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $49 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $3 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $3 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $49 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $49 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $24 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 325 history records