Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x6700…acfe other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,405 (-15%) realized −$1,373 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate28%14W / 36L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$323
7 days−$323
14 days−$1,691
30 days−$1,685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$564
crypto 13% −$990
politics 4% −$163
sports 1% +$6
weather 0% −$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +31.2% +18.7% 33% 33% -34.9%
≤30d 50 -29.5% -36.2% 28% 16% -26.9%
≤90d 50 -29.5% -36.2% 28% 16% -26.9%
all 50 -29.5% -36.2% 28% 16% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 16% -26.9%
10% -42.3% 14% -33.9%
15% -47.9% 10% -40.3%
20% -53.0% 10% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -23% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$63 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$654
Realized−$1,373
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses14 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)50 / 60
History coverage24d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $222 $218 −$4 (-2%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $159 $143 −$16 (-10%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $96 −$5 (-5%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $154 −$57 -37%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $695 −$121 -17%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Ara Jun 26 $1 +$1 +142%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $297 −$145 -49%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1 +$4 +249%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $188 −$116 -62%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 17 $410 −$163 -40%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $258 −$64 -25%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$54 -53%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$20 -19%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$38 -37%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $530 +$34 +6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $154 +$88 +57%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$6 -6%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $44 −$43 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +35%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +9%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $105 +$5 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 −$108 -97%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $310 +$44 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,136 +$65 +6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $889 −$71 -8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $185 −$10 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $765 +$176 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $138 +$70 +51%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $57 −$7 -12%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $206 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $103 +$97 +94%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $103 −$22 -22%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $103 −$38 -37%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $103 −$14 -14%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $103 −$11 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 32¢ $1 45m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $227 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $97 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $106 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $453 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Ara SELL 22¢ $2 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador vs. Germany end BUY 6¢ $1 34h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $151 34h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $152 34h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador vs. Ger BUY 5¢ $1 35h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Ara BUY 8¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 2¢ $5 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY 4¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $75 8d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $72 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $391 8d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $195 8d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $81 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $65 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $653.54 · official $654.69 (match) · 213 history records