Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66fa…e8aa world 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate34%38W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$10
other 24% +$2
politics 17% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 4% −$11
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 57% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 29 +0.5% -9.1% 41% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 69 +0.2% -9.4% 41% 0% -9.2%
all 111 +0.1% -9.4% 34% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses38 / 73
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage316d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $42 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $23 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $77 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $161 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $190 +$5 +3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $114 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $217 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $116 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $73 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $34 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $67 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $87 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $32 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $31 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $2 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $22 +$2 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $29 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $29 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $93 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $31 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $29 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $76 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $123 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $14 $0 +2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $115 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $123 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $59 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $23 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $26 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $12 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $39 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $40 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $38 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $15 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $15 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.54 · official $42.53 (match) · 450 history records