Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x66f9…adb9
politics · 331 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$11,110 +43%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,906 · open +$1,897
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22,832
Realized+$8,906
Unrealized+$1,897
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses32 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions251
Markets (closed)80 / 331
History coverage167d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 251 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$165
14 days+$5,992
30 days+$7,182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $1,523 $1,608 +$85 (+6%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $860 $1,220 +$360 (+42%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 38¢ 46¢ $809 $956 +$147 (+18%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 40¢ 41¢ $807 $821 +$14 (+2%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $910 $796 −$114 (-13%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $817 $774 −$43 (-5%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 15¢ 28¢ $366 $688 +$321 (+88%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 52¢ 56¢ $520 $567 +$47 (+9%)
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $472 $504 +$31 (+7%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $468 $498 +$31 (+7%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $513 $486 −$27 (-5%)
Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $248 $400 +$153 (+62%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 40¢ $396 $400 +$4 (+1%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $442 $374 −$67 (-15%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $381 $325 −$56 (-15%)
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? No 22¢ 23¢ $306 $320 +$13 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $337 $317 −$20 (-6%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $131 $298 +$167 (+127%)
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $250 $294 +$45 (+18%)
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $162 $289 +$128 (+79%)
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $320 $288 −$32 (-10%)
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $264 $285 +$21 (+8%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $276 $280 +$5 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $288 $278 −$10 (-3%)
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 31¢ 38¢ $216 $271 +$55 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 03 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $62 +$6,219 +10012%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $100 −$48 -48%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 02 $20 −$15 -76%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $80 +$12 +16%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $100 −$11 -11%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $100 +$101 +101%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 26 $137 +$189 +138%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o May 25 $95 +$798 +840%
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-07 House seat? May 24 $64 +$9 +15%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 22 $105 −$5 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $21 −$2 -7%
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? May 20 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat? May 20 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? May 20 $13 +$6 +44%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? May 19 $11 +$18 +160%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 18 $112 +$36 +32%
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat? May 18 $180 +$49 +27%
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? May 17 $39 +$11 +29%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida May 12 $106 −$67 -64%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-06 House seat? May 08 $7 +$2 +25%
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? May 07 $77 +$18 +23%
Will Trump endorse Susan Collins for ME-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? May 07 $5 +$4 +80%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Apr 26 $93 +$4 +4%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Apr 19 $350 +$32 +9%
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-09 House seat? Apr 18 $4 $0 +9%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-48 House seat? Apr 18 $60 +$6 +10%
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-05 House seat? Apr 17 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? Apr 15 $52 +$26 +51%
Will the Democratic Party win the NH-01 House seat? Apr 15 $7 +$2 +24%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 93% +$11,363
other 5% −$483
world 1% +$15
culture 0% −$17
sports 0% −$77
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 16m
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 16m
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 16m
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes 20¢ $83 18m
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes 14¢ $258 18m
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes 3¢ $1 20m
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes 9¢ $10 20m
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes 3¢ $2 20m
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 50m
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? BUY No 23¢ $24 51m
Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat? BUY No 26¢ $46 1h
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 1h
Will Jared Polis be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? BUY No 23¢ $67 1h
Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? BUY No 11¢ $12 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $46 1h
Will the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat? BUY No 57¢ $2 1h
Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? BUY No 10¢ $12 3h
Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 3h
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 10h
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $0 12h
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 31 +66.7% +50.9% 42% 35% +122.2%
≤90d 69 -0.6% -10.1% 36% 26% +32.8%
all 80 +18.6% +7.3% 40% 30% +74.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 30% +74.6%
10% -3.0% 25% +57.9%
15% -12.3% 16% +42.6%
20% -20.9% 14% +28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,832.41 · official $22,837.39 (match) · 1979 history records