Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:55:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
66 0x66f4…9c4c sports 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$969 (+17%) realized +$1,031 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%24W / 55L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,602
7 days+$2,828
14 days+$2,828
30 days+$2,541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$834
sports 31% +$2,011
crypto 31% −$365
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +41.0% +27.6% 31% 31% +41.2%
≤30d 79 +37.7% +24.6% 30% 30% +31.0%
≤90d 79 +37.7% +24.6% 30% 30% +31.0%
all 79 +37.7% +24.6% 30% 30% +31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.6% 30% +31.0%
10% +12.6% 30% +18.5%
15% +1.8% 30% +7.0%
20% -8.2% 29% -3.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +95% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$40 · ×4.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$1,031
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses24 / 55
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 97
History coverage18d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Over 49¢ 29¢ $117 $69 −$48 (-41%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $35 $52 +$17 (+48%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Over 15¢ 5¢ $49 $18 −$31 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 +$278 +182%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $355 +$260 +73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $15 +$114 +785%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $41 +$181 +442%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$162 +226%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $286 +$149 +52%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $172 +$83 +48%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $46 −$15 -33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $6 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $129 +$95 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $66 +$89 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $134 −$127 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $72 −$68 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$63 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +169%
Chris Wood: 3+ goals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $26 +$836 +3251%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $26 +$106 +414%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Darwin Núñez: 2+ goals Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $130 −$130 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $7 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $50 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $112 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 20h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $41 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 10¢ $26 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $355 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $286 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 89¢ $256 27h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 25¢ $31 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 3¢ $6 30h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $46 30h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $101 30h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $71 30h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $129 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $66 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $63 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $63 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $46 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $66 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $35 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $15 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $16 32h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $71 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.63 · official $143.25 · 201 history records