Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:38:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
66 0x66f3…3dad crypto 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 511d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,131 (-1%) realized −$1,178 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate84%347W / 64L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3,960now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$194
7 days−$194
14 days−$194
30 days+$599
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% +$928
tech 19% +$2,161
politics 18% −$1,718
weather 17% −$1,093
other 12% −$1,438
world 1% −$20
economics 1% +$18
culture 0% +$6
sports 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -93.1% -93.8% 0% 0% -62.5%
≤30d 10 -81.2% -83.0% 10% 10% +6.8%
≤90d 22 -38.4% -44.3% 50% 23% -1.5%
all 411 -5.0% -14.1% 84% 21% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 21% -10.6%
10% -22.3% 7% -19.2%
15% -29.8% 4% -27.0%
20% -36.7% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$175 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

511d coverage
Net worth$3,960
Realized−$1,178
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses347 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)411 / 408
History coverage511d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $2,543 $2,558 +$16 (+1%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $970 $993 +$23 (+2%)
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $260 $272 +$12 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $132 $130 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $8 $5 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 18–25? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 18–25? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $221 −$84 -38%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $2,990 +$793 +26%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 14 $3,292 +$196 +6%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30? May 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? Apr 30 $398 +$140 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 29? Apr 29 $1,462 −$1,450 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 29? Apr 29 $1,929 +$1,406 +73%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $12 −$11 -97%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo Apr 27 $1,285 +$214 +17%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 27 $700 +$12 +2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 22 $140 +$14 +10%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 17 $457 +$5 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 16 $445 +$12 +3%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31? Apr 01 $595 +$105 +18%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28? Mar 01 $84 +$2 +2%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $475 +$5 +1%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31? Feb 01 $1,582 +$263 +17%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 22 $691 +$85 +12%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 21 $161 +$15 +9%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Dec 20 $26 +$1 +5%
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31? Dec 19 $92 +$7 +8%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Dec 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31? Dec 18 $11 $0 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Dec 17 $117 +$16 +13%
Will None in 2025 occur? Dec 16 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Elon register any party before 2027? Dec 11 $4 $0 +4%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $32 +$15 +45%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 09 $206 +$32 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 1-7? Dec 08 $384 +$34 +9%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025? Dec 06 $86 +$10 +12%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 03 $822 +$31 +4%
Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025? Dec 02 $369 +$15 +4%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 01 $488 +$112 +23%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 01 $1,107 +$47 +4%
Starmer out in 2025? Nov 15 $170 +$16 +9%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025? Nov 14 $537 +$134 +25%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Nov 04 $118 +$6 +5%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025? Nov 03 $31 +$1 +2%
Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Oct 30 $38 −$35 -92%
Will Trump announce TikTok deal by Thursday? Oct 30 $211 −$196 -93%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Oct 30 $99 +$20 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 99¢ $132 1h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $131 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 2¢ $2 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 7¢ $6 5d
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,562 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $983 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 9d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $647 9d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $323 9d
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $8 19d
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $27 20d
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $225 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 83¢ $17 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 78¢ $2,973 38d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 99¢ $2,989 40d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 95¢ $38 53d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 95¢ $96 54d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 95¢ $2,083 54d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? BUY No 74¢ $6 54d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? BUY No 74¢ $9 54d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? BUY No 74¢ $44 54d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? BUY No 74¢ $36 54d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? BUY No 74¢ $28 55d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? BUY No 74¢ $14 55d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? BUY No 74¢ $8 55d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? BUY No 74¢ $4 55d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? BUY No 74¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? BUY No 74¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? BUY No 74¢ $7 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,959.64 · official $3,959.50 (match) · 1799 history records