trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $800 | $750 | −$50 (-6%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 27¢ | 26¢ | $500 | $472 | −$28 (-6%) |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $270 | $308 | +$38 (+14%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 11¢ | $196 | $211 | +$15 (+8%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $50 | $46 | −$4 (-8%) |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | $125 | $0 | −$125 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $307 | +$11 | +4% |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score | Jun 13 | $126 | −$125 | -99% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $512 | +$25 | +5% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $217 | −$153 | -70% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -30.5% | -37.1% | 67% | 0% | -18.0% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -40.5% | -46.2% | 50% | 0% | -28.4% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -40.5% | -46.2% | 50% | 0% | -28.4% |
| all | 4 | -40.5% | -46.2% | 50% | 0% | -28.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -46.2% | 0% | -28.4% |
| 10% | -51.3% | 0% | -35.2% |
| 15% | -56.0% | 0% | -41.5% |
| 20% | -60.3% | 0% | -47.2% |