Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
66 0x66f2…718c other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 433d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$1,729 (+25%) realized +$1,575 · open +$154
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$853now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$7
30 days+$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% +$1,183
other 27% +$294
sports 4% +$181
world 1% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +10.8% +0.2% 60% 60% -13.8%
≤30d 20 +84.8% +67.2% 60% 60% +29.8%
≤90d 20 +84.8% +67.2% 60% 60% +29.8%
all 34 +51.5% +37.1% 53% 53% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.1% 53% +12.9%
10% +24.0% 50% +2.1%
15% +12.0% 44% -7.8%
20% +1.0% 32% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +98% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$51 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

433d coverage
Net worth$853
Realized+$1,575
Unrealized+$154
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)34 / 43
History coverage433d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 94¢ $351 $480 +$130 (+37%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $177 $172 −$4 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $52 $63 +$11 (+21%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $21 $34 +$13 (+62%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 62¢ 97¢ $22 $34 +$12 (+56%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 62¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $34 +$16 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$15 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $21 +$23 +114%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $18 −$18 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $21 +$19 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $104 −$103 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 −$2 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 +$34 +75%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$32 +158%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $20 −$5 -23%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $16 +$214 +1314%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $42 +$64 +152%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $165 +$44 +27%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $501 +$107 +21%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $32 −$21 -67%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $31 −$9 -28%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $146 +$194 +134%
Will Man City win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 28 $586 −$8 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 11% and 14% of the vote in the South Kor Jun 04 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 8-11%? Jun 04 $279 +$127 +46%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 03 $271 +$211 +78%
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes? Jun 03 $351 +$449 +128%
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 30 $222 −$210 -94%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele May 28 $151 −$13 -9%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 23 $61 +$92 +152%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? May 22 $66 +$84 +127%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 13 $151 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 12 $2,471 +$597 +24%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 29 $220 −$212 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $32 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 21¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $177 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $21 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $18 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $21 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $104 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $30 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $46 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 6d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 62¢ $22 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 11d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $334 13d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $2 13d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $4 13d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $853.13 · official $853.13 (match) · 196 history records