Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:32:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66f2…2515 crypto 1150 markets active 5h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%547W / 603L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$334
14 days−$323
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$125
other 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 341 -80.7% -82.5% 4% 4% -68.9%
≤30d 352 -59.8% -63.7% 7% 7% -50.1%
≤90d 1150 -4.9% -14.0% 48% 40% -12.2%
all 1150 -4.9% -14.0% 48% 40% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 40% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 29% -20.6%
15% -29.7% 16% -28.3%
20% -36.6% 8% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses547 / 603
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1150 / 1150
History coverage78d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1150 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$16 +491%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$12 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$5 +456%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2790 history records