Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
66 0x66f0…b31f crypto 944 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$579 (-1%) realized −$509 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%551W / 384L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$216
14 days−$4,627
30 days−$4,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$985
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 366 -12.7% -21.0% 60% 52% -5.6%
≤30d 615 -31.9% -38.4% 45% 38% -30.8%
≤90d 757 -14.8% -22.9% 52% 46% -23.4%
all 935 -7.2% -16.0% 59% 52% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 52% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 40% -20.1%
15% -31.4% 29% -27.8%
20% -38.1% 21% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$509
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses551 / 384
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)935 / 944
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 935 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$37 +137%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$6 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$34 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$17 +84%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$21 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$43 +60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +152%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$27 +329%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$21 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$28 +91%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$13 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$3 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$6 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$4 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$50 +98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$16 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$33 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $40 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $0 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $11 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 3500 history records