Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
66 0x66ef…c510 other 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,811 (+1%) realized +$1,810 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate24%38W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$1,444per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$30
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$134
politics 40% −$116
sports 10% +$2,065
world 3% −$38
tech 2% −$3
culture 2% −$5
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 +7.1% -3.1% 14% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 93 -3.1% -12.3% 10% 5% -9.2%
all 160 +4.9% -5.1% 24% 14% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 14% -8.8%
10% -14.2% 14% -17.6%
15% -22.5% 10% -25.5%
20% -30.1% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$6 · ×11.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.52 per $1 lost it wins $3.52
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$1,149
Realized+$1,810
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses38 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)160 / 162
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1,444
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $716 $715 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $432 $433 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $952 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $656 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3,242 −$4 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 22 $2,319 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $810 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $699 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $3,138 −$5 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,967 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,377 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,969 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,403 −$6 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $5,183 −$6 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,688 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,177 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,050 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3,951 −$6 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,658 −$3 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $78 +$79 +101%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $65 +$74 +114%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $5,094 −$7 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,236 −$5 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,658 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,589 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $462 +$1 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $7,081 −$7 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $820 +$1 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $2,076 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,558 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $84 +$42 +50%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $58 +$92 +158%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $2,712 −$4 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $5,011 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $6,702 −$7 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,100 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 09 $3,252 −$4 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $2,960 −$4 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,673 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,675 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $3,207 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $4,084 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $716 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $951 18h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $952 20h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $625 25h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $625 27h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $655 43h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $656 46h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $416 46h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $416 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,059 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,060 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $809 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $810 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $699 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $699 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,546 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,548 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,549 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,551 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,588 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,590 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,350 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,351 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,375 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,377 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,512 10d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,514 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $432 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,148.82 · official $1,149.04 (match) · 530 history records