Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66ef…f738 crypto 221 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,452 (-13%) realized −$1,406 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%116W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$160
14 days−$155
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$516
other 25% −$44
sports 18% −$551
world 10% −$34
finance 7% −$127
politics 3% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -9.8% -18.4% 59% 48% -16.9%
≤30d 49 -10.8% -19.3% 57% 47% -11.2%
≤90d 79 -13.8% -22.0% 57% 41% -14.9%
all 210 -19.1% -26.8% 55% 36% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 36% -21.5%
10% -33.8% 21% -29.0%
15% -40.2% 13% -35.8%
20% -46.1% 11% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$34 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$1,406
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses116 / 94
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)210 / 221
History coverage447d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? Yes 11¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-50%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 53¢ 18¢ $24 $8 −$16 (-67%)
Obama federally charged before 2027? Yes 19¢ $26 $7 −$19 (-73%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-21%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 +$12 +54%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $90 −$27 -30%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 15 $17 −$7 -40%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$7 -61%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $47 +$7 +14%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 14 $15 −$13 -85%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $234 −$233 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $149 +$27 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $48 +$10 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $269 +$17 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $70 +$3 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 −$1 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$3 +13%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $94 +$4 +4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $60 +$18 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $30 +$9 +31%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $108 +$18 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $193 −$137 -71%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $50 −$14 -28%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $71 +$11 +16%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $43 −$18 -43%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $23 +$21 +90%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $47 +$9 +20%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $126 +$76 +60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 07 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $101 +$91 +90%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $78 +$4 +5%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $108 −$100 -92%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $366 +$25 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $20 +$26 +126%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $614 +$130 +21%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $102 +$67 +66%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 27 $302 −$12 -4%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $19 +$3 +14%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $101 +$54 +53%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 2 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $111 +$54 +48%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 49m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $22 4h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes $22 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY $15 44h
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 44h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY $2 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY $51 46h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 46h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $11 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $47 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes $2 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $234 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $176 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $48 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $48 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $149 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 82¢ $50 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $23 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $70 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $50 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 38¢ $102 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $98 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.35 · official $52.71 (match) · 567 history records