Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
66 0x66ee…c9cd sports 792 markets active 9h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$57 (+1%) realized +$55 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%500W / 286L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$78
14 days+$166
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$46
other 2% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +22.4% +10.7% 78% 76% +6.7%
≤30d 193 +6.1% -4.0% 70% 66% +0.4%
≤90d 774 -0.9% -10.3% 64% 58% -8.6%
all 786 -0.8% -10.3% 64% 58% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 58% -8.8%
10% -18.9% 47% -17.6%
15% -26.7% 35% -25.5%
20% -33.9% 20% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses500 / 286
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions6
Markets (closed)786 / 792
History coverage108d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 786 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 68¢ 72¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+7%)
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Shopify Rebellion Black 69¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 31¢ 62¢ $3 $5 +$3 (+98%)
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage QoR 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $9 +$9 +92%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$5 +76%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $8 +$6 +73%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du Jun 15 $7 +$2 +23%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $14 +$5 +33%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $7 +$2 +27%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$6 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$3 +36%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $8 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $7 +$2 +26%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$12 +172%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $26 +$7 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $7 +$7 +101%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $7 +$3 +42%
Mannarino vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $11 +$4 +40%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $7 +$5 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$10 +158%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $9 +$4 +44%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$11 +55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14 +$7 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $13 +$8 +58%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $8 +$5 +57%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $5 −$1 -25%
Boogaard vs. Wu: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +36%
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $4 +$4 +86%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 11 $6 +$3 +58%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 11 $9 +$5 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 31¢ $3 11h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 45¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 40¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 41¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 33¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 57¢ $25 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner SELL KOLESIE 47¢ $7 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 63¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner SELL GenOne 31¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 91¢ $15 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 48¢ $2 19h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 69¢ $1 32h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 69¢ $4 32h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY QoR 80¢ $4 32h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 68¢ $7 32h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $22 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 65¢ $5 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $2 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $7 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $7 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $4 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $7 46h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 71¢ $7 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $1 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.08 · official $44.08 (match) · 1978 history records