Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66ed…aa53 finance 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,465 (+2%) realized +$3,131 · open +$334
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate73%80W / 30L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$1,535per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$6,820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$753
7 days+$926
14 days+$1,473
30 days+$3,511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 78% +$3,320
other 9% +$528
crypto 6% +$685
world 3% −$1,052
politics 3% +$40
tech 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 14% -6.5%
≤30d 46 +5.0% -5.0% 76% 35% -4.8%
≤90d 105 +3.3% -6.5% 72% 27% -7.9%
all 110 +3.3% -6.6% 73% 25% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 25% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 5% -16.7%
15% -23.7% 2% -24.7%
20% -31.2% 1% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$2,013) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$203 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$6,820
Realized+$3,131
Unrealized+$334
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses80 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)110 / 121
History coverage113d
Avg bet$1,535
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 88¢ 96¢ $1,794 $1,941 +$147 (+8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 86¢ 97¢ $811 $913 +$102 (+13%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? No 92¢ 88¢ $860 $823 −$37 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 83¢ 82¢ $817 $809 −$8 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No 87¢ 98¢ $696 $786 +$90 (+13%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 91¢ 93¢ $526 $542 +$16 (+3%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? No 95¢ 96¢ $406 $410 +$3 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 83¢ 89¢ $250 $268 +$19 (+7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 80¢ 80¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 91¢ 92¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+1%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 17 $1,362 −$141 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 17 $2,633 +$260 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 15 $6,488 +$634 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $955 −$134 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $371 +$37 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $2,000 +$43 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $446 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $1,697 −$27 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 13 $705 +$79 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $2,834 −$275 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 13 $302 −$15 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $2,142 −$58 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $1,985 +$392 +20%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $3,349 +$131 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 10 $1,857 +$229 +12%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 10 $993 +$133 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 09 $444 +$19 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 08 $2,088 +$127 +6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 06 $131 +$27 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 04 $646 +$85 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $604 +$33 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 04 $1,110 −$369 -33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $1,943 +$261 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $789 +$117 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $3,292 +$307 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $353 +$52 +15%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 01 $372 −$38 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? May 31 $986 +$89 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 31 $3,246 +$22 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? May 30 $63 +$3 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $3,053 +$307 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 30 $2,300 +$13 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 29 $947 +$145 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 29 $1,022 −$24 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 27 $504 +$80 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 27 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 27 $1,411 −$4 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 26 $1,324 +$275 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 26 $1,543 +$220 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 24 $2,400 +$111 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 23 $1,308 +$163 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 23 $506 −$165 -32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 22 $902 +$52 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 22 $1,004 +$50 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 21 $1,507 +$123 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 20 $669 +$131 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 18 $797 −$137 -17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 06 $354 +$46 +13%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 01 $700 +$1,119 +160%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 92¢ $226 35m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 86¢ $53 35m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 84¢ $425 40m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 91¢ $46 44m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 83¢ $252 46m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 82¢ $150 59m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 92¢ $235 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 94¢ $201 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 92¢ $401 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 81¢ $768 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 80¢ $202 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 91¢ $10 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $43 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $422 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $79 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $20 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 91¢ $18 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $74 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $14 7h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $182 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL No 95¢ $1,446 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL No 95¢ $1,446 8h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? BUY No 95¢ $19 30h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? BUY No 95¢ $388 31h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 89¢ $175 36h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 90¢ $45 43h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 90¢ $9 43h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 90¢ $90 43h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 90¢ $18 43h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 88¢ $37 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,820.43 · official $6,825.11 (match) · 1297 history records