Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x66ea…497a other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$491 (-64%) realized −$395 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$396
sports 15% −$72
crypto 10% −$48
world 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-74.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -71.8% -74.5% 13% 0% -80.9%
≤30d 15 -71.8% -74.5% 13% 0% -80.9%
≤90d 15 -71.8% -74.5% 13% 0% -80.9%
all 15 -71.8% -74.5% 13% 0% -80.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.5% 0% -80.9%
10% -76.9% 0% -82.7%
15% -79.1% 0% -84.4%
20% -81.2% 0% -85.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$33 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$395
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage6d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 33¢ 6¢ $100 $20 −$80 (-80%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $15 −$12 -76%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 4d
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL No 11¢ $24 5d
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL No 16¢ $28 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 5d
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 12¢ $50 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 5d
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 6d
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $102 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.15 · official $104.15 (match) · 28 history records